A prediction market price is a probability in disguise. Enter a contract's price, or odds in any format, to see the implied probability, the matching sports betting odds, and your edge if you have your own estimate.
Enter odds as
What one contract costs, from 1¢ to 99¢. It pays $1 if it wins.
How likely you think it is. Used to show your edge.
Implied probability
40%
The price is the market's probability only roughly: the spread, fees and the favorite-longshot bias all move it. Fractional odds use the price rounded to a whole cent.
A contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and nothing if it doesn't. Its price, from 1¢ to 99¢, is what the market will charge for that $1 promise, so a price of 40¢ means the market puts the chance at about 40%. Buying it risks 40¢ to make 60¢, which is the same bet as decimal odds of 2.5, American odds of +150 or fractional odds of 3/2.
| Price | Implied probability | Decimal | American | Fractional |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 5% | 20 | +1900 | 19/1 |
| 10¢ | 10% | 10 | +900 | 9/1 |
| 20¢ | 20% | 5 | +400 | 4/1 |
| 25¢ | 25% | 4 | +300 | 3/1 |
| 30¢ | 30% | 3.33 | +233 | 7/3 |
| 40¢ | 40% | 2.5 | +150 | 3/2 |
| 50¢ | 50% | 2 | -100 | 1/1 |
| 60¢ | 60% | 1.67 | -150 | 2/3 |
| 70¢ | 70% | 1.43 | -233 | 3/7 |
| 75¢ | 75% | 1.33 | -300 | 1/3 |
| 80¢ | 80% | 1.25 | -400 | 1/4 |
| 90¢ | 90% | 1.11 | -900 | 1/9 |
| 95¢ | 95% | 1.05 | -1900 | 1/19 |
Three things push a price away from the true chance. The spread: the price to buy yes plus the price to buy no usually adds up to a little more than $1. Fees: many exchanges charge a fee on each trade, which raises your real cost (see the fee calculator). And bias: traders overpay for long shots, so cheap contracts win less often than their price says.
If you think the chance is higher than the price, you have an edge. Enter your probability above to see the gap in percentage points and the return you would expect per $1 before fees. To include fees and your order size, use the expected value calculator; to decide how much to put on it, use the Kelly calculator.
Put it to work on live prices
Lenium is a prediction market prop firm: trade an evaluation on live market prices and earn a share of the profits. All accounts are simulated, evaluation, funded and Instant accounts alike: they trade virtual balances on live market prices. No real money is traded and no orders are sent to any exchange.
Lenium is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any exchange or prediction market operator.