Risk and Simulated Performance Disclosure

Effective date: [EFFECTIVE DATE] · Version: 2

Most people who buy an evaluation do not pass it, and most who pass do not earn a payout. Most Instant accounts end before any payout is made. Only pay for an evaluation or an Instant account with money you can afford to lose completely. Read this disclosure before you buy; you must confirm you have read it at checkout.

1. Evaluation accounts are simulated

No real money is traded in an evaluation, and no order reaches the exchange whose prices we use or any other exchange. Balances are notional. The only money at risk is the fee you pay, which you lose if you do not pass.

Instant accounts are simulated funded accounts. Most Instant accounts end before any payout is made. The only money at risk is the price you pay, which you lose if the account ends.

Funded accounts are also simulated. Payouts are paid by Lenium from its own funds, based on your simulated results.

2. Limits of simulated results

Simulated or hypothetical trading results have inherent limits. Unlike real trading, simulated trades are not executed and may not reflect the effect of real market conditions such as limited liquidity. In particular:

Fills. Simulated orders fill in full at the displayed price, whatever their size. On a real exchange, a large order could fill only partly, at worse prices, or not at all, and your own order could move the price.
Timing. Prices on Lenium can lag the exchange whose prices we use by a few seconds. Real traders compete for the same prices.
Hindsight and pressure. Trading without your own money at stake is different from trading with it.
Past results. No representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown anywhere on the Service. Simulated results, leaderboards, and examples do not predict future real results.

3. Event contracts are risky

Event contracts settle at 100 cents or 0 cents. A position can lose its entire value when a market resolves.
Many markets move together. One election, economic release, or sporting event can move many positions at once.
The exchange whose prices we use can halt, void, change, or delist markets, or change their rules and fees. Market data can be delayed, wrong, or unavailable. Section 16 of the Terms explains how we handle this.
Professional firms and market makers trade these markets. Published research on a major US prediction market exchange found that contracts priced very low (longshots) lose far more often than their price suggests, and that traders who take prices, as Lenium's simulated orders do, fare worse than those who post them.

4. Payouts are not guaranteed

A payout is owed to you only after we approve it. Profit left in a funded account is not yours and can be lost to drawdown.
Payouts are capped at 5% of the account's starting balance per 30 days and require identity verification and tax information.
Approved payouts are an unsecured obligation of Lenium, Inc.. They are not deposits and are not protected by the FDIC, SIPC, or any insurance or compensation scheme.

5. Regulatory risk

Lenium is not registered with or regulated by the CFTC, NFA, SEC, or any state financial regulator. The legal treatment of event contracts and of evaluation-based prop programs is changing, at federal and state level. A change in law, regulation, or enforcement, or a change in the terms of the exchange whose prices we use, could force us to change, limit, or stop the Service in some or all places. The Terms explain what happens to purchases and payouts if that occurs.

6. Costs add up

Every attempt costs a fee, and resets, Instant accounts and add-ons cost more. Buying repeated attempts to recover earlier fees can lead to larger losses. Treat evaluation fees as a cost, not an investment, and not as a way to earn a living.

7. If it stops feeling like skill

If you find yourself chasing losses, spending more than you planned, or trading to cope with stress, stop and take a break. Free, confidential help is available 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER in the United States. You can ask us at support@lenium.capital to block your account from new purchases for a period you choose.

8. Your confirmation

By ticking the box at checkout, you confirm that you have read and understood this disclosure, that evaluation and Instant accounts are simulated, that you may lose the entire fee or price, and that no payout is guaranteed.

1. Evaluation accounts are simulated

Instant accounts are simulated funded accounts. Most Instant accounts end before any payout is made. The only money at risk is the price you pay, which you lose if the account ends.

Funded accounts are also simulated. Payouts are paid by Lenium from its own funds, based on your simulated results.

2. Limits of simulated results

Fills. Simulated orders fill in full at the displayed price, whatever their size. On a real exchange, a large order could fill only partly, at worse prices, or not at all, and your own order could move the price.

Timing. Prices on Lenium can lag the exchange whose prices we use by a few seconds. Real traders compete for the same prices.

Hindsight and pressure. Trading without your own money at stake is different from trading with it.

Past results. No representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown anywhere on the Service. Simulated results, leaderboards, and examples do not predict future real results.

3. Event contracts are risky

Event contracts settle at 100 cents or 0 cents. A position can lose its entire value when a market resolves.

Many markets move together. One election, economic release, or sporting event can move many positions at once.

The exchange whose prices we use can halt, void, change, or delist markets, or change their rules and fees. Market data can be delayed, wrong, or unavailable. Section 16 of the Terms explains how we handle this.

Professional firms and market makers trade these markets. Published research on a major US prediction market exchange found that contracts priced very low (longshots) lose far more often than their price suggests, and that traders who take prices, as Lenium's simulated orders do, fare worse than those who post them.

4. Payouts are not guaranteed

A payout is owed to you only after we approve it. Profit left in a funded account is not yours and can be lost to drawdown.

Payouts are capped at 5% of the account's starting balance per 30 days and require identity verification and tax information.

Approved payouts are an unsecured obligation of Lenium, Inc.. They are not deposits and are not protected by the FDIC, SIPC, or any insurance or compensation scheme.

5. Regulatory risk

7. If it stops feeling like skill