Regulated vs Crypto Prediction Markets: Fees and Rules
Regulated U.S. prediction markets vs crypto-based ones: how each is overseen, how money moves, how fees and settlement work, and which you can use.
By Lenium · Published · 4 min read
Prediction markets come in two broad kinds: regulated U.S. exchanges, overseen by the CFTC, and crypto-based exchanges such as Polymarket. On both, you buy and sell yes/no contracts that settle at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so a price of 40¢ is the market's estimate of a 40% chance.
The contracts work the same way. What differs is who runs the exchange, how your money is held, what you pay in fees, and how a market decides what happened. Those differences matter more than the logo once you trade seriously.
The short version
| Regulated U.S. exchange | Crypto-based exchange (e.g. Polymarket) | |
|---|---|---|
| Who oversees it | A designated contract market regulated by the CFTC | Polymarket's international exchange runs outside the US; a separate US exchange (Polymarket US) is licensed by the CFTC and opened to US users from December 2025 |
| Your money | US dollars in an account, funded from a bank or card | International: a dollar stablecoin in your own crypto wallet. US: an account on the US app |
| Fees | A published formula based on the price (below), lower for resting orders on some markets | Taker fees that depend on the price on many markets, with rebates for resting orders; the schedule changed several times in 2026 |
| How markets settle | By the contract's written rules and named source | By each market's rules, resolved on the international exchange through an on-chain oracle |
| Best known for | Economics, weather, politics, sports and finance markets for US users | Global politics, crypto and current-events markets with deep international liquidity |
Rules and fee schedules change. Check each exchange's own pages before you trade.
Regulation: why it changes what you can do
A regulated U.S. exchange can offer markets on things like inflation, interest rates and the weather to US customers through a normal account. Some states have challenged sports contracts in court, so availability of a few market types can depend on where you live.
Polymarket grew up as an international, crypto-based exchange and was not open to US users for years. It came back to the US by buying an exchange that already held a CFTC license, and runs that as a separate app. If you are in the US, the US app is the version you can use; the international exchange lists many markets the US one does not.
Money in, money out
On a regulated U.S. exchange you deposit and withdraw dollars, much like a brokerage account. On Polymarket's international exchange you hold a dollar stablecoin in a wallet you control, which means no bank account in between but also crypto transfers, network fees and the responsibility of keeping the wallet safe.
This matters for anything that moves money between the two, such as arbitrage: the time and cost of moving funds is part of the trade.
Fees, with an example
A common regulated-exchange schedule charges takers 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent, with lower fees for orders that rest on the book in some markets. The fee is largest at 50¢ and smallest near 1¢ and 99¢.
Buying 100 contracts at 40¢ costs $40.00 and pays 0.07 × 100 × 0.40 × 0.60 = $1.68 in fees. As a share of what you pay, the fee is highest on cheap contracts, one reason longshots tend to lose money. Try your own numbers in the fee calculator.
Polymarket also charges takers a fee that depends on the price on many markets and pays rebates to orders that rest on the book. Because its schedule changed several times in 2026, use the current fee page rather than any number you read in a guide, including this one.
Settlement: the part traders forget
Two markets with the same headline can settle differently. One might use an official government release, another a specific website at a specific time; one might count a recount, the other not. A regulated U.S. exchange settles by the contract's written rules and named source. Polymarket's international markets are settled by their own written rules through an oracle process, where a proposed answer can be disputed.
Before you treat two prices as the same bet, read both rule pages. Most "free money" between the two exchanges disappears when you do.
Liquidity and prices
Neither exchange is deeper everywhere. Big political and crypto questions often trade heavily on Polymarket; US economic data, weather and many sports markets often trade more on regulated U.S. exchanges. What matters for a trade is the spread and the size available at your price, so check the order book, not the headline volume.
Which one should you use?
- You're in the US and want dollar accounts and US-regulated markets: a regulated U.S. exchange, or the Polymarket US app.
- You trade economic releases, rates or weather: regulated U.S. exchanges list more of these.
- You're outside the US and comfortable with crypto wallets: Polymarket's international exchange, where it is permitted.
- You want to practise first: paper trade, or take a prop firm evaluation, before risking your own money.
Where Lenium fits
Lenium is a prediction market prop firm that runs on live prices from a regulated U.S. exchange. You trade a simulated account under clear rules, and if you pass the evaluation you can be paid a share of the profits from a funded account, without putting your own money into the market. Every account is simulated; no orders are sent to an exchange.
Read how a prediction market prop firm works, see how it works at Lenium, or open a free demo account to practise on live markets first.